What happens to real estate when the economy grows negative?

29/12/2018

After nearly two years of facing Covid-19, the real estate market as well as many economic sectors are suffering negative impacts.

What will real estate do when the economic growth is negative?

The real estate market as well as many economic sectors are suffering from the negative impacts of the epidemic.

Economic and financial expert Can Van Luc said that the business community in general and real estate businesses in particular are dealing with difficulties due to the pressure of the epidemic and economic inflation.

Specifically, from the beginning of 2021 until now, the number of businesses that have to be dissolved or stopped operating has increased by about 24% over the same period in 2020. The inflation rate is at 3%.

It is forecast that Vietnam's best GDP growth in 2021 is from 4.8-5%, the worse situation will reach 3.5-4%, but market demand is very weak, the currency's rotation takes place. out slow.

Meanwhile, it is expected that by mid-2022, Vietnam will meet the criteria for herd immunity through vaccination against Covid-19.

Mr. Luc said that, for Vietnam, the ability to recover strongly starts from the fourth quarter of 2021. The third quarter is the bottom quarter of the economy.

Briefly sharing the picture of Vietnam's real estate market last year, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien raised four issues.

Firstly, at present, the whole country is still "not fully recovered from the sad mood" of negative growth indicators. Therefore, measures to help goods and currency circulate need a long time to recover.

Second, the world real estate market is recovering quickly. This can be a factor that helps the domestic real estate go up.

Third, the number of real transactions in the last quarter of this year is showing signs of increasing. Not only do developers choose the time of year-end launch, but buyers are also more confident when they drop their money.

And finally, according to Mr. Thien, the economy heavily impacted by the epidemic will need policy priorities.

“The more smooth the economy is, the better. That is a prerequisite for real estate to return to its growth momentum,” emphasized Mr. Thien.

Meanwhile, economist Vo Tri Thanh said that Vietnam is showing changes in difficult times. With a gradual opening, the changing trend will continue.

"If we observe in Vietnam, during the epidemic period, not all provinces have negative growth," Thanh said.

Specifically, Vinh Phuc, Hai Phong, grew 14%. That will continue throughout the recovery phase. Besides residential real estate, industrial, resort and commercial real estate all recovered quickly.

Nguyen Van Dinh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association, said that in the difficult situation caused by the 4th epidemic, real estate is still an industry with many opportunities and potential for development.

Although there is very little new supply, the products offered for sale in the whole market since the beginning of the year still reach a large quantity, absorbing about 40%.

The land plot segment is of interest to investors, with the absorption rate reaching 60%. The market developed evenly in all regions.

Forecasting the upcoming market, Mr. Dinh said that the fact that many big cities and many localities across the country basically completed the vaccination for people aged 18 years old had created many safe green areas. This will contribute to the resumption of production activities and economic development in the context of the new normal.

Mr. Dinh said that many businesses are weakened, forced to carry out M&A projects that will appear in the fourth quarter of 2021. However, the number will not be much, less than 10% and mainly located in small projects.

According to Cafeland