Sharing at the Vietnam Real Estate Conference on December 13, economist Can Van Luc assessed that many macro and micro factors will promote a better recovery of the real estate market in 2022-2023. .
"Vietnam's economy is forecasted to grow by 6-6.5% next year, even if the recovery programs are well implemented, GDP can increase by 6.5-7%. The economy changes positively. will help real estate demand increase," Mr. Luc said.
On the other hand, the market's prospects also come from other factors such as the 2021-2030 housing development strategy being finalized; infrastructure investment is considered as one of the three strategic breakthroughs, public investment is promoted; Legal issues are being removed gradually, urbanization is increasing rapidly.
This expert also noted that over the past time, credit capital poured into real estate is also abundant. Accordingly, by the end of the third quarter, real estate credit capital increased by about 6% compared to the end of 2020. Total real estate credit outstanding balance is about 2 million billion VND, accounting for 19% of total outstanding loans of the economy, of which , housing loans accounted for 64%, the rest was credit to real estate business.
Private capital and FDI also poured into this market, by the end of November, the total newly registered foreign capital had reached nearly 2 billion USD, ranking third in the group of fields. Real estate enterprises are also ranked first in the bond issuance market with VND 436,000 billion, as of the end of November 2021.
"Real estate is still an attractive investment channel. The stock price of the real estate group is rising higher than the average of the whole market, which is a bright spot in the stock market," he said.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan Trang emphasized, the demand for real estate investment of people in 2022 is very large. A quick survey of 1,000 homebuyers of this site shows that 92% of respondents will continue to invest in real estate next year. In which, 77% said that the purchase is to own more houses, only 23% said that they are buying instead. 44% of people said they will buy in the next 1-2 years, 32% said they will invest in 3-5 years.
According to this position, the two types of investment that are of great interest in 2022 are apartments and land plots, concentrated in three areas of the city, including Hai Phong, Bac Ninh and Hung Yen. These are the places of strong search interest in the period of 2019-2021 despite the epidemic.
With apartments, he said, this is the type of investment that is interested and has an impressive level of recovery since 2021 and is forecasted to remain in the following year. The supply and price level of this type of real estate will continue to increase. In 2021, apartment prices have increased by an average of 2-8% in all segments.
The data of this site is showing that, right at the end of 2021, the number of people searching for planning information is increasing sharply again, reaching 80% compared to the beginning of the year - when the market had a land fever. The price level also tends to increase, forming a new price base compared to 2020.
Mr. Vu Truong Thang, General Director of Winhousing Vietnam Joint Stock Company also shared the view that land plots will continue to receive a lot of attention from investors in the coming year. "This is still a channel to keep money for people, avoid inflation and devaluation," he said.
In addition, he recognized that tourism real estate, industrial real estate will also be noticed when the vaccine is covered more widely to meet the travel needs of the market and foreign capital flows.
"The market also has warm signals again because Covid-19 is accepted by people to live together to serve economic purposes," he commented.
However, the purchasing power and demand for real estate investment in the next year are also seen to depend heavily on the Covid-19 variable.
Responding to VnExpress earlier, Mr. Nguyen Hoang, R&D Director of DKRA Vietnam, said that if Vietnam controls the epidemic well until the end of 2021 and 2022, the money will flow into this market positively.
"In the first half of 2022, new supply and purchasing power equivalent to the end of this year, may increase slightly but not too strongly. In the second half of 2022, the market will be more active, new supply and liquidity may grow. selective," he said. Accordingly, a number of projects with good infrastructure, full legal status, and favorable locations will have more positive sales than last year. He also said that there will be no real estate fever in 2022.
But in a complicated epidemic scenario, the real estate market may fall into a quiet state like from June to September of 2021. Investors will keep a cautious mentality, waiting to observe the market. "If the distance is again, even at a lighter level, the real estate market will be difficult, the purchasing power will also decrease sharply," said Mr. Hoang.
According to Vnexpress
